Synthetic data · thresholds placeholder · scenario time D0 06:40 (SYN)S-06
Scenario Analysis · SCN-SYN-0031 · alternate sourcing for Entity A1
What happens under each option?
Scope Group · all entities
Period P07 MTD (SYN)
Last refresh 06:25 (SYN)
All outputs are SCENARIO (SCN), never the base forecast
Sources and lineage
Base · shortfallSCN
24.3kt
Forecast breach
Pending certification
Base forecast: 24.3 kt Entity A1 shortfall from D+4 without action.
Plan0 · var —
Trend—
ForecastFrom D+4
FCST BASE
Refreshed 06:25Owner Planning (role)
Option A · shortfallSCN-A
10.3kt
Declining
Pending certification
Option A recovers 14.0 kt of the 24.3 kt base shortfall.
Plan0 · var —
Trend—
ForecastRecovers 14.0
SCN
Refreshed 06:25Owner Planning (role)
Option B · shortfallSCN-B
18.2kt
Declining
Pending certification
Option B recovers 6.1 kt by internal release within Entity A1.
Plan0 · var —
Trend—
ForecastInternal release within Entity A1
SCN
Refreshed 06:25Owner Planning (role)
Option A + B · shortfallSCN-AB
4.2kt
On track
Pending certification
A + B leaves 4.2 kt, closing the gap by D+6.
Plan0 · var —
Trend—
ForecastFull by D+6
SCN
Refreshed 06:25Owner Planning (role)
Option A + B · costSCN-AB$
2.8₹ m
On track
Pending certification
A + B costs ₹2.8 m against ₹9.2 m exposure avoided.
Plan— · var —
Trend—
Forecastvs exposure 9.2
SCN
Refreshed 06:25Owner Finance (role)
Option C · EBITDA gapSCN-C
−56.2₹ m
Forecast breach
Pending certification
Accepting the shortfall keeps the ₹56.2 m EBITDA gap (PRD-003).
Plan0 · var —
Trend—
ForecastAccept shortfall
SCN
Refreshed 06:25Owner Finance (role)
Focus of this page
Scenario options · Entity A1 and Group · EBITDA and cash · ₹ m (SCN)
AnswersWhich option protects EBITDA and cash, and at what cost?
Scenario outputs (SCN), never the base forecast. Rule: Entity A1 EBITDA gap and upstream exposure scale with the option shortfall from the base (PRD-003 Entity A1 −48.5, CSH-006 27.2); Group adds Entity A2 −7.7. Base and Option C equal Group −56.2.
Option
Entity A1 shortfall · kt
Entity A1 EBITDA gap
Group EBITDA gap
Cash upstream exposure
Cost
Base · no action
24.3
−48.5
−56.2
27.2
—
Option A · alternate supplier
10.3
−20.6
−28.3
11.5
2.4
Option B · internal release
18.2
−36.3
−44.0
20.4
—
Option A + B
4.2
−8.4
−16.1
4.7
2.8
Option C · accept shortfall
24.3
−48.5
−56.2
27.2
—
Scenario assumptions
Assumptions
Owner roles
4 assumptions
Quality, Procurement, Planning, Supply
Sensitivity of A + B
If
Then
Alternate-supplier qualification takes 4 days
Shortfall 9.0 kt
Internal release is only 4 kt
Shortfall 8.0 kt
Scenario actions
Issue
Severity
Exposure
Named owner (role)
Due
Status
Next action
Critical
Decision basis
Core Group Executive (publisher, D-09)
D0 09:30
Ready
Publish